Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed Despite US-Iran Ceasefire — Only 6 Ships in 24 Hours, 600 Vessels Stranded, 20,000 Seafarers Trapped

Despite a two-week ceasefire announced by President Trump on April 7, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping as of April 10, with vessel transits running at less than 5 percent of pre-war averages — creating what analysts describe as the worst global energy supply disruption since the 1970s oil crisis.

Before the war began February 28, between 100 and 120 commercial vessels transited the strait daily, including tankers carrying approximately 20 percent of the world's oil and natural gas supply and 30 percent of globally traded fertilizer. As of April 10, only 6 ships made the passage in a single 24-hour period, including just two oil or gas tankers. More than 600 vessels — including 325 tankers — remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. The International Maritime Organization estimates 20,000 seafarers are awaiting evacuation aboard trapped ships.

Iran has conditioned transit on explicit permission from its naval forces, issued a map indicating the strait may be mined with mandatory alternative routing channels close to the Iranian mainland, and signaled its intention to impose transit fees — a position Trump called "dishonorable" and "not the agreement we have." Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber, also the UAE's Minister of Industry, stated plainly: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion."

Shipping executives have stated they have "no information" on how to transit safely and are not in contact with Iranian authorities. Hapag-Lloyd, the world's fifth-largest shipping company, has six container ships trapped in the strait but has declined to move them. Kpler analyst Matt Smith confirmed that as of April 10, only two tankers — one of them Iranian-flagged — had transited since the ceasefire announcement.

Oil prices, which briefly fell below $95 per barrel on ceasefire hopes, have rebounded to approximately $96-98 per barrel as markets absorb the reality that traffic has not recovered. Analysts at Kpler estimate it could take up to six months to restore pre-war traffic levels even if the ceasefire holds. Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner are leading the U.S. delegation to Islamabad, Pakistan for talks beginning Saturday April 11. Vance has stated that if Iran does not follow through on Hormuz reopening, the ceasefire ends: "If we don't see that happening, the president is not going to abide by our terms."

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has stated that Tehran will bring Hormuz management "into a new phase" and remains determined to "take revenge" for his father's assassination and those killed in the war. Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has added that the end of conflict in Lebanon and release of frozen Iranian assets are preconditions to serious negotiations.